Which were the best Polls? (2004 election)


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How accurate were the pollsters?

2004 US Presidential election - the tossup states

Pollsters' data from October 29 - November 1, 2004

Following table shows pollsters' accuracy by tossup state

B= G.W.Bush   K= John Kerry    Numbers are in % over 50%

Pollster

State

Voters said

Called

Right/Wrong

Bias

 

 

 

 

 

 

American Research Group

Florida

B+5.1

K+2

Wrong

K+7.1

Zogby

Florida

B+5.1

Tie

Wrong

K+5.1

FOX News

Florida

B+5.1

K+5

Wrong

K+10.1

Survey USA

Florida

B+5.1

B+1

Right

K+4.1

Quinnipiac Universify

Florida

B+5.1

B+8

Right

B+2.9

CNN/USAT/Gallop

Florida

B+5.1

K+3

Wrong

K+8.1

Rasmussen

Florida

B+5.1

B+3

Right

K+2.1

Mason-Dixon

Florida

B+5.1

B+4

Right

K+1.1

 

 

 

 

50% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby

Ohio

B+2.5

B+6

Right

B+3.5

FOX News

Ohio

B+2.5

B+3

Right

B+0.5

Survey USA

Ohio

B+2.5

B+2

Right

K+0.5

CNN/USAT/Gallop

Ohio

B+2.5

K+4

Wrong

K+6.5

Ohio Poll/UofC

Ohio

B+2.5

B+0.9

Right

K+1.6

Mason-Dixon

Ohio

B+2.5

B+2

Right

K+0.5

Rasmussen

Ohio

B+2.5

B+4

Right

B+1.5

Clev. Plain Dealer

Ohio

B+2.5

B+3

Right

B+0.5

 

 

 

 

12.5% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Survey USA

Pennsylvania

K+2.2

K+1

Right

B+1.2

Zogby

Pennsylvania

K+2.2

K+4

Right

K+1.8

CNN/USAT/Gallop

Pennsylvania

K+2.2

B+4

Wrong

B+6.2

Quinnipiac Universify

Pennsylvania

K+2.2

Tie

Wrong

B+2.2

Rasmussen

Pennsylvania

K+2.2

K+2

Right

B+0.2

Mason-Dixon

Pennsylvania

K+2.2

K+2

Right

B+0.2

 

 

 

 

33% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby

Wisconsin

K+0.5

K+6

Right

K+5.5

FOX News

Wisconsin

K+0.5

B+3

Wrong

B+3.5

CNN/USAT/Gallop

Wisconsin

K+0.5

B+8

Wrong

B+8.5

Mason-Dixon

Wisconsin

K+0.5

K+2

Right

K+1.5

American Research Group

Wisconsin

K+0.5

K+1

Right

K+0.5

Badger Poll

Wisconsin

K+0.5

B+3

Wrong

B+3.5

 

 

 

 

50% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Survey USA

Iowa

B+0.9

K+3

Wrong

K+3.9

Zogby

Iowa

B+0.9

K+5

Wrong

K+5.9

FOX News

Iowa

B+0.9

B+4

Right

B+3.1

CNN/USAT/Gallop

Iowa

B+0.9

B+2

Right

B+1.1

Mason-Dixon

Iowa

B+0.9

B+5

Right

B+4.1

DM Register

Iowa

B+0.9

K+3

Wrong

K+3.9

Research 2000

Iowa

B+0.9

B+1

Right

B+0.1

American Research Group

Iowa

B+0.9

B+1

Right

B+0.1

 

 

 

 

37.5% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby

Minnesota

K+3.6

K+6

Right

K+2.4

CNN/USAT/Gallop

Minnesota

K+3.6

K+8

Right

K+4.4

Rasmussen

Minnesota

K+3.6

K+1

Right

B+2.6

Mason-Dixon/PP

Minnesota

K+3.6

B+1

Wrong

B+4.6

Star-Tribune

Minnesota

K+3.6

K+8

Right

K+4.4

Humphrey Inst

Minnesota

K+3.6

B+3

Wrong

B+6.6

 

 

 

 

33% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby

New Mexico

B+1.7

K+3

Wrong

K+4.7

American Research Group

New Mexico

B+1.7

K+1

Wrong

K+2.7

Mason-Dixon

New Mexico

B+1.7

B+4

Right

B+2.3

Albuquerque Journal

New Mexico

B+1.7

B+3

Right

B+1.3

Rasmussen

New Mexico

B+1.7

B+4

Right

B+2.3

 

 

 

 

40% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

American Research Group

New Hampshire

K+1.4

B+1

Wrong

B+2.4

UNH Tracking

New Hampshire

K+1.4

K+1

Right

B+0.4

Mason-Dixon

New Hampshire

K+1.4

K+1

Right

B+0.4

Research 2000

New Hampshire

K+1.4

K+3

Right

K+1.6

 

 

 

 

25% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby

Michigan

K+3.1

K+6

Right

K+2.9

Survey USA

Michigan

K+3.1

K+3

Right

B+0.1

Mason-Dixon

Michigan

K+3.1

K+2

Right

B+1.1

Rasmussen

Michigan

K+3.1

K+4

Right

K+0.9

Detroit News

Michigan

K+3.1

K+2

Right

B+1.1

Research 2000

Michigan

K+3.1

K+4

Right

K+0.9

 

 

 

 

0% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Survey USA

Missouri

B+7.4

B+5

Right

K+2.4

Mason-Dixon

Missouri

B+7.4

B+5

Right

K+2.4

KC Star

Missouri

B+7.4

B+4

Right

K+3.4

Research 2000

Missouri

B+7.4

B+3

Right

K+4.4

 

 

 

 

0% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Survey USA

Nevada

B+2.6

B+8

Right

B+5.4

Zogby

Nevada

B+2.6

B+5

Right

B+2.4

Mason-Dixon

Nevada

B+2.6

B+6

Right

B+3.4

 

 

 

 

0% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Survey USA

Colorado

B+7.1

B+3

Right

K+4.1

Zogby

Colorado

B+7.1

B+2

Right

K+5.1

Mason-Dixon

Colorado

B+7.1

B+7

Right

K+0.1

Rocky Mnt News

Colorado

B+7.1

B+9

Right

B+1.9

 

 

 

 

0% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Survey USA

Maine

K+7.1

K+8

Right

K+0.9

Zogby

Maine

K+7.1

K+11

Right

K+3.9

 

 

 

 

0% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mason-Dixon

West Virginia

B+12.9

B+8

Right

K+4.9

Zogby

West Virginia

B+12.9

B+9

Right

K+3.9

 

 

 

 

0% WRONG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mason-Dixon

Oregon

K+5.1

K+6

Right

K+0.9

Survey USA

Oregon

K+5.1

K+3

Right

B+2.1

Oregonian

Oregon

K+5.1

K+6

Right

K+0.9

American Research Group

Oregon

K+5.1

K+4

Right

B+1.1

 

 

 

 

0% WRONG

 

 

See the above table sorted by Pollster

 

Comments?   Email me at crwillis@androidworld.com