No Civil War in Iraq - Just Another Media Feeding Frenzy


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No Danger of Civil War in Iraq

Nowhere near enough people are getting killed in Iraq to qualify as a civil war. Notice that the killing rate in Iraq is less than 5% of the expected national daily death toll (35 killed vs 734 expected deaths).  Notice that the death toll in the civil war in Somalia was over 50% of the expected national daily death toll (99 killed vs 197 expected deaths).  In fact the death toll in Iraq would need to go up by a factor of more than 10 to reach the (adjusted) death rate in the US Civil War and it would need to go up by a factor of over 17 to reach the (adjusted) death rate in the Russian Civil War. And by the way, its a lot EASIER to kill people these days than it was in the US or Russian civil wars, thus you would expect a higher death rate for a real civil war today than at the time of the US Civil War.

  • Iraq 2006
    • Iraq population  = 26.8 million (CIA estimate 2006)
    • Iraq dead Apr 2003 - July 2006 = 40,000 (Iraq Body Count Project)
    • Deaths per month = 40,000 / 38 = 1,050 per month
    • Deaths per day = 1,050/30 = 35 per day (= 4.77% of national death rate)
    • Expected national death rate = 1% per year = 268,000 per year.
    • Expected national death rate = 734 per day (all causes)
  • Colombia drug war deaths
    • Colombia population = 43.6 million (CIA estimate 2006)
    • Drug deaths per year = 32,000 (approx) due to drugs
    • Drug deaths per month = 32,000 / 12 = 2,666 per month
    • Drug deaths per day = 2,666/30 = 89 per day (= 7.45% of national death rate)
    • 2.5 times the raw death rate in Iraq 
    • adjustment factor = 26.8 million / 43.6 million = 0.615
    • 1.54 times the adjusted death rate in Iraq 
    • Expected national death rate = 1% per year = 436,000 per year.
    • Expected national death rate = 1195 per day (all causes)
  • Somalia civil war (1991 - 2004)
    • Somalia population 1990 = 7.2 million (UN estimate)
    • Total deaths = 500,000 (European Union official estimate)
    • Deaths per month = 500,000 / 168 = 2,976 per month
    • Deaths per day = 2,976/30 = 99 per day (= 50.25% of national death rate)
    • 2.85 times the raw death rate in Iraq
    • adjustment factor = 26.8 million / 7.2 million = 3.72
    • 10.61 times the adjusted death rate in Iraq 
    • Expected national death rate = 1% per year = 72,000 per year.
    • Expected national death rate = 197 per day (all causes)
  • Spanish civil war (July 1936 - April 1939)
    • Spanish population 1936 = 25 million (estimate)
    • Total deaths = 500,000 (estimate)
    • Deaths per month = 500,000 / 33 = 15,151 per month
    • Deaths per day = 15,151/30 = 505 per day (= 73.7% of national death rate)
    • 14.43 times the raw death rate in Iraq
    • adjustment factor = 26.8 million / 25 million = 1.07
    • 15.47 times the adjusted death rate in Iraq 
    • Expected national death rate = 1% per year = 250,000 per year.
    • Expected national death rate = 685 per day (all causes)
  • US Civil War (Apr 1861 - Apr 1865)
    • US population  1860 = 27.5 million free + 4 million slaves = 31.5 million
    • North dead =  120,000 battle deaths + 240,000 other deaths = 360,000
    • South dead = 95,000 battle deaths + 165,000 other deaths = 260,000
    • Total deaths = 620,000
    • Deaths per month = 620,000 / 48 = 12,900 per month
    • Deaths per day = 12,900/30 = 430 per day (= 49.83% of national death rate)
    • 12.3 times the raw death rate in Iraq
    • adjustment factor = 26.8 million / 31.5 million = 0.85
    • 10.46  times the adjusted death rate in Iraq 
    • Expected national death rate = 1% per year = 315,000 per year.
    • Expected national death rate = 863 per day (all causes)
  • Russian Civil War (Feb 1917 - 1922?)
    • Russia population  1915 =  178 million.
    • Russian military dead -  approx 800,000
    • Russian civilian dead - approx 8,000,000
    • Deaths per month = 8,800,000 / 72 = 122,200 per month
    • Deaths per day = 122,200/30 = 4073 per day (= 83.5% of national death rate)
    • 116.4 times the raw death rate in Iraq
    • adjustment factor = 26.8 million / 178 million = 0.15
    • 17.5  times the adjusted death rate in Iraq 
    • Expected national death rate = 1% per year = 1.78 million per year.
    • Expected national death rate = 4877 per day (all causes)