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No Danger of Civil War in Iraq
Nowhere near enough people are
getting killed in Iraq to qualify as a civil war. Notice that the
killing rate in Iraq is less than 5% of the expected national daily
death toll (35 killed vs 734 expected deaths). Notice that the
death toll in the civil war in Somalia was over 50% of the expected
national daily death toll (99 killed vs 197 expected deaths). In
fact the death toll in Iraq would need to go up by a factor of more
than 10 to reach the (adjusted) death rate in the US Civil War and it would need
to go up by a factor of over 17 to reach the (adjusted) death rate in the
Russian Civil War. And by the way, its a lot EASIER to kill people
these days than it was in the US or Russian civil wars, thus you would
expect a higher death rate for a real civil war today than at the time
of the US Civil War.
- Iraq 2006
- Iraq population = 26.8 million
(CIA estimate 2006)
- Iraq dead Apr 2003 - July 2006 = 40,000
(Iraq Body Count Project)
- Deaths per month = 40,000 / 38 = 1,050 per
month
- Deaths per day = 1,050/30 = 35 per day (=
4.77% of national death rate)
- Expected national death rate = 1% per year
= 268,000 per year.
- Expected national death rate = 734 per day
(all causes)
- Colombia drug war deaths
- Colombia population = 43.6 million (CIA
estimate 2006)
- Drug deaths per year = 32,000 (approx) due to
drugs
- Drug deaths per month = 32,000 / 12 = 2,666 per
month
- Drug deaths per day = 2,666/30 = 89 per day
(= 7.45% of national death rate)
- 2.5 times the raw death rate in Iraq
- adjustment factor = 26.8 million / 43.6
million = 0.615
- 1.54 times the adjusted death rate in Iraq
- Expected national death rate = 1% per year
= 436,000 per year.
- Expected national death rate = 1195 per day
(all causes)
- Somalia civil war (1991 - 2004)
- Somalia population 1990 = 7.2 million (UN
estimate)
- Total deaths = 500,000 (European Union
official estimate)
- Deaths per month = 500,000 / 168 = 2,976 per
month
- Deaths per day = 2,976/30 = 99 per day (=
50.25% of national death rate)
- 2.85 times the raw death rate in Iraq
- adjustment factor = 26.8 million / 7.2
million = 3.72
- 10.61 times the adjusted death rate in Iraq
- Expected national death rate = 1% per year
= 72,000 per year.
- Expected national death rate = 197 per day
(all causes)
- Spanish civil war (July 1936 - April 1939)
- Spanish population 1936 = 25 million (estimate)
- Total deaths = 500,000 (estimate)
- Deaths per month = 500,000 / 33 = 15,151 per
month
- Deaths per day = 15,151/30 = 505 per day (=
73.7% of national death rate)
- 14.43 times the raw death rate in Iraq
- adjustment factor = 26.8 million / 25 million =
1.07
- 15.47 times the adjusted death rate in Iraq
- Expected national death rate = 1% per year
= 250,000 per year.
- Expected national death rate = 685 per day
(all causes)
- US Civil War (Apr 1861 - Apr 1865)
- US population 1860 = 27.5 million
free + 4 million slaves = 31.5 million
- North dead = 120,000 battle deaths +
240,000 other deaths = 360,000
- South dead = 95,000 battle deaths + 165,000
other deaths = 260,000
- Total deaths = 620,000
- Deaths per month = 620,000 / 48 = 12,900
per month
- Deaths per day = 12,900/30 = 430 per day (=
49.83% of national death rate)
- 12.3 times the raw death rate in Iraq
- adjustment factor = 26.8 million / 31.5
million = 0.85
- 10.46 times the adjusted death rate in Iraq
- Expected national death rate = 1% per year
= 315,000 per year.
- Expected national death rate = 863 per day
(all causes)
- Russian Civil War (Feb 1917 - 1922?)
- Russia population 1915 = 178
million.
- Russian military dead - approx 800,000
- Russian civilian dead - approx 8,000,000
- Deaths per month = 8,800,000 / 72 = 122,200
per month
- Deaths per day = 122,200/30 = 4073 per
day (= 83.5% of national death rate)
- 116.4 times the raw death rate in Iraq
- adjustment factor = 26.8 million / 178
million = 0.15
- 17.5 times the adjusted death rate in Iraq
- Expected national death rate = 1% per year
= 1.78 million per year.
- Expected national death rate = 4877 per day
(all causes)
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